The end of the year is always accompanied by three things. First, an orgy of consumerism. Second, “best of” lists. Third, “predictions for the year to come”.
 
End-of-year predictions can be made in several ways. You can examine and track trends, you can gauge public opinion, and … you can pull them out of your ass. Needless to say, some methods provide better results than others.
 
The most amusing prediction that I’ve heard so far is the one made that “Second Life as we know it will end.” I’m amused because, while not one to make predictions, I did fret that 2010 or 2011 might bring about the demise of Second Life – or at the very least a purchase of Second Life by some third party (Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, or worst of all, AOL) with uncertain results. Further, the bungling of things during the leadership of Mark Kingdon gave many people the impression that the leadership did not understand the importance of user experience and feedback and didn’t care to understand. I created almost no new products in 2010 and 2011 because, frankly, I wasn’t confident that we would be around long enough for any of it to make a difference.
 
Looking toward 2012, my outlook has shifted completely. This is entirely subjective, but my optimism for the future (or at least the next few years) of Second Life has returned. Yes, the grid has suffered a lot of attrition – quite a few large businesses have closed up shop. I do think that the pessimism of the past two years, combined with the natural need to “move on” at some point, both contributed to the loss. Change is the only constant. Also, a lot of disgruntled residents left for alternative grids “for good” – but many of those people have since returned to the ‘Mother Grid’. Low priced sim tier is attractive, but it’s not enough. You need to have a comparable amount of quality end-user goods for people to buy in order to entice people to stay, and none of the third-party grids have even a fraction of what is available in Second Life. This is not to discount the market for SL-based third-party virtual worlds. But there just is nothing that comes close to doing what Second Life does, and has done for eight years.
 
Which brings us to the ‘McDonalds Factor’. Second Life is to virtual worlds what Google is to search engines. Nobody comes close. And for as much as we complain about graphics and performance, we can look at Blue Mars for an example of how having those things is simply not enough. Quite frankly, Second Life came into being in the waning years of the dot-com bubble, and I think that it will be quite a few years yet before we see the advances in technology and new ideas that could bring about another such ‘goldrush’, if ever. Second Life came along at just the right time. It doesn’t necessarily matter that it did not become the game-changing ‘killer app’ that many had hoped. So many have declared Second Life’s “failure” as the point in which corporate interest in creating virtual goods evaporated. This short-sighted analysis is still employed by lazy journalists at all levels. Second Life, for all it’s flaws, succeeds at doing something that nobody else has been able to achieve, even with breathtaking graphics and tight code.
 
The question that has been (in my opinion, incorrectly) asked over and over again is “Why won’t Second Life appeal to the masses?” Aside from the obvious steep learning curve, Second Life requires an investment of time, dedication, and most of all, imagination. While SL is certainly many things to many people, it has a particularly consistent core membership – people with a lot of free time on their hands, generally introverted, very creative, and considerably more open-minded than the general populace.
 
Also – and few people want to admit this publicly – Second Life attracts ‘broken’ people. I don’t mean this as an insult in any way, as I am absolutely one of the broken ones. Second Life gives many of us very crucial things which are lacking in our own lives. For some, it’s the ability to socialize in ways that are difficult or impossible in real life. For others, it provides a safe environment to explore facets of our inner selves. For others, it’s a canvas for the imagination. And yes, for many, it’s a way to engage in the safest form of consensual sexual expression. In Second Life, you can be anything that you want, and the vast majority of SL residents have shown that they want idealized manifestations of themselves – youthful and lively, attractive and successful. (Or furry and insatiable.)
 
Second Life is the ultimate collaborative sketchbook. This is what Second Life does best. It provides the canvas for our imaginations. Corporations don’t want us to be imaginative. They want us to all drink the same thing, wear the same clothes, drive the same cars, watch the same movies, and listen to the same music. From what any of us can observe in our own daily lives, that has become what the general public wants as well – to have their decisions made for them and to have their experiences mediated by someone else. It’s a little bit like having Abercrombie & Fitch renting vendor space at a comic-book convention – you don’t want to waste money marketing to the wrong audience. That’s precisely what Mark Kingdon tried to do when he took over the helm of Linden Lab, and in my humble opinion, that is precisely why things have felt so disturbingly wrong for the past couple of years. The active and evangelical core user base was quite literally ignored in the decision-making while an outsider with no real interest in the platform attempted to make SL attractive to the masses. (If I can give any advice to Rodvik and Company, it would be to adopt this slogan for Second Life in 2012: “Second Life™: It’s Not For Everyone, So It Might Be For You.”)
 
Linden Lab continues to be profitable, but obviously no business can sustain and grow profitability without diversification. They clearly want and need a mass-appeal product, and Second Life has not been that. I firmly believe that they can develop and provide such a service without killing the goose that … well, that at least continues to pay the rent. That is precisely what I believe that Linden Lab seeks to accomplish. I believe that Second Life will persist for as long as there are people willing to use it. I believe the number of major upgrades to grid functionality and performance might diminish to a certain extent while new projects are under development, but they certainly won’t cease. I believe the outlook for either of two scenarios bodes well for Second Life – either a new product is released that achieves the mass-appeal that Second Life didn’t, and SL rides along this new wave of profitability, or it won’t succeed and Second Life will remain the fallback.
 
Where established content creators disappear, others will take their place. Let’s also not forget how many designers have “left” only to return to business under a new account. For those who truly grok Second Life, breaking up with it is hard to do. That’s why there’s so much reincarnation in our virtual world.
 
Unlike a few doomsayers out there, I contend that Second Life will survive 2012, and 2013, and even 2014. We have a CEO who likes and uses the product, who actually has been known to communicate directly with the user base, and seems to “get” Second Life. Let’s face it, Second Life has survived much of the time in spite of those running it. I think that, provided there’s a push to reconnect with the user base, Second Life can continue to survive and even thrive in the years to come. For example, Viewer 3 is actually both functional and pleasant to use. (See, Hamlet? It’s not simply our refusal to change with the times.) Nearly all third-party viewers have adopted mesh as well, and while implementation was not whisper-smooth and it still has a way to go – “mesh deformer” *cough cough* – it works.
 
Those who thrive on controversy and strife to keep the spotlight on themselves will do or say anything outlandish to maintain a sense of relevancy. “If it bleeds, it leads” is a sad fact. You don’t get people to visit your website by saying, “Concurrent logins will decrease by 1.8 percent.” You get them there by saying, “Second Life is dying and Linden Lab is going to screw everyone over.” So sorry, Catherine, but I’m not buying it. Harold Camping was proven wrong, the Mayans will be proven wrong, and you will be proven wrong.
 
And I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.